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Yesterday the international financial markets, oil prices become the "big winner", US tarpaulin oil "rally, such as rainbow" both rose more than 5%, IMF lowered its global growth forecasts, making global policy more liberal outlook, the market slowed down the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again It expected US trade data and the date of weakness, which is pressuring the dollar fell to a week low of 95.50. Gold has also a strong break $ 1,140 / oz key resistance level. US stocks rose for the final five days now after the S & P fell 0.4 percent tired. Today the Bank of Japan once again resorted whether QE concern. Crude oil "rally, such as rainbow," the US means "dejected".

☆ ☆ Tuesday mmarket review US trade deficit widened, US stocks ended mixed. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 13.76 points to 16,790.19 points, or 0.08%; the S & P 500 index fell 7.13 points to 1,979.92 points, down 0.36%; the Nasdaq composite index fell 32.90 points to 4,748.36 points, down 0.69%.

Tuesday, WTI and Brent oil prices both rose more than 5%, WTI November crude oil futures closed up $ 2.44, or 5.27 percent, $ 48.70 a barrel. ICE Brent November crude oil futures closed up $ 2.74, or 5.56 percent, $ 51.99 a barrel. COMEX December gold futures closed up $ 8.50, or 0.75 percent, $ 1146.10 an ounce. London copper futures also traded up 0.1 percent to $ 5,185 a tonne, and intraday rise back above $ 5,200 per tonne.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global economic growth is expected to pass a pessimistic signal, but it seems to have little effect on the market.

There is fear index, known as the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) fell 0.9% late, since Monday, remain below the long-term average of 20, indicating that the stock market to withstand the extreme pressures have eased.

European stocks, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index of blue-chip stocks rose 0.65 percent, reported 1,422.12 points, a record high of about two weeks. Eurozone blue chip stocks Euro STOXX 50 index rose 0.93 percent. The regional index, the FTSE 100 index closed up 0.43 percent, reported 6,326.16 points, the French CAC index rose 0.95 percent, reported 4,660.64 points, the German DAX index rose 0.9 percent, to close at 9,902.83 points.

Asian stock market, the Nikkei 225 index closed up 1 percent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.1 percent.

The dollar index continued to decline, fell rapidly late in the level before the FOMC meeting.

US 10-year bond yields rose on Monday after seven basis points fell back, fell 2 basis points to 2.04 percent. US yields 0.61% for the biennium to maintain unchanged.

☆ crude oil "rally, such as rainbow," Geopolitics and inventories fell a double positive ☆ WTI and Brent oil prices both rose more than 5 percent, even though driving this huge increase "catalyst" is not yet clear, but analysts have speculated that the United States and Russia are affected or will take military action in Syria geopolitical risks. Russian Defense Minister said that, in principle, agreed to cooperate with the United States on the Syrian issue. Crude oil "rally, such as rainbow," the US means "dejected" (US oil three days Chart, Source: Bloomberg)

Crude oil "rally, such as rainbow," the US means "dejected" (Three-day oil cloth charts, pictures Source: Bloomberg)

The US government is expected to tighten the supply of crude oil next year, boosting oil prices. There are indications, Russia, Saudi Arabia and other oil producing countries may support the market for further consultations. In technical buying, driven by rapidly Brent crude oil rose through $ 50.

Oil prices once executives at industry conferences held in London, warned that if the increase in fuel demand, oil production in the United States "dropped" could lead to higher oil prices. Former chief executive of US shale oil producer EOG Resources of Mark Papa in the Oil and Money conference that US oil production growth will slow this month, and begin to decline from early next year.

Today's rally in oil prices led some traders to believe that the possibility of oil prices dropped back in August hit a low of six and a half less. Ritterbusch & Associates in the oil market consultant Jim Ritterbusch, "said US crude oil futures dropped back in recent months, the possibility of reducing the area of ​​$ 37-38, we insist on long-held belief that oil prices could fall below the support level Basics does not exist. "

EIA report showed that the increase in global demand to support oil prices. EIA monthly report released on Tuesday said global oil demand growth next year will be the biggest in six years, while non-OPEC (OPEC) member states stagnant supply growth, which indicates that excess oil supply situation improved faster than expectations.

EIA in the short-term outlook in the energy market, said next year the total global oil supply is expected to increase to 9,598 million barrels a day last month is expected to decrease by 0.1%. Demand is expected to increase 27 million barrels to 9,520 million barrels per day, compared with September is expected to increase by 0.3%.

Russian Energy Minister and Saudi Arabia last week will meet to discuss the oil market situation to support oil prices. OPEC Secretary General Badri at a conference held in London, said, OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries should work together to reduce global excess supply.

OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla Salem el-Badri Badri at a meeting held on Tuesday in London, said oil prices will rebound because of global oil investment has been slashed, which will play a role in suppressing the supply of crude oil. He expects this year's global oil and gas investment will decline 22.4 percent.

Analyst at Phillip Futures Energy Dan Daniel Ang said. "Crude oil prices fell to the current level, and in a very long time are maintained at this price, definitely bring harm to major oil-producing countries, including Russia. Crude oil market is to find some support, because the Russian Energy Minister He said the country is preparing a meeting with OPEC member states, to discuss issues of the oil market. "

ING analyst Hamza Khan believes Russia and OPEC meeting is unlikely optimistic results. Recent concerning Russia and the OPEC meeting on oil prices may consult reports boosted market sentiment, but in view of Russia's current economic situation, it is unlikely to have any plans to cut; Western sanctions led to Russia last year to become the country's oil export revenues The main source of foreign currency, while oil prices continued to fall so that Russia had no choice except increase its September oil production has reached the highest post-Soviet period.

Geopolitical crisis also constitute support for oil prices. Famous blog Zero Hedge think the geopolitical crisis pushed up oil prices soaring, the article said, is difficult to clearly determine Tuesday WTI and Brent crude oil soaring reasons, but this is clearly not subject to IMF lowered global growth expected impact. According to some trading platforms in the past two hours, due to the spread of geopolitical risks, investors worried about the US and Russia will erupt proxy war, while Saudi Arabia and Iran may be due to the requirements of the Middle East countries are forced to cut oil supply, a number of factors push up international oil prices.

Tuesday, RIA Novosti quoted the Russian Senate Speaker said that if Iraq received a request, Russia will consider the Syrian air strikes against militants extended to Iraq, but Iraq has not received the request; now the Russian air strikes in Syria into the first 6th, the more tense the situation in the Middle East just a few days to make WTI oil prices have pulled up nearly 5%.

US industry version of the API crude oil inventories have fallen sharply, but also constitute a support for oil prices. Data showed the US October 2 week API crude oil inventories fell 1.2 million barrels, is expected to grow by 2.2 million barrels, the former value increased by 460 million barrels; the United States on October 2 when the week API Cushing crude oil inventories fell 100,000 barrels, the former value decreased by 1.2 million barrels; the United States on October 2 when the API week gasoline inventories rose 470 million barrels, the former value increased by 330 million barrels a day.

Industry newsletter The 7: 00's Report co-editor of the Tyler Richey said, "Our conclusion is that this week is entirely the result of rising oil prices on speculation and expectations brought about, has not been supported by any conclusive, positive facts. As a result, we do not expect oil prices to exceed $ 44 per barrel since the five weeks to $ 48 price range, up until we begin to see the development trend of US crude oil production while. For now, this trend is still crude oil market really fundamental driving force. "

☆ United States refers to "feel dejected," the Fed rate hike is expected to defer to the "killer" ☆ The dollar index fell to a week low of 95.50 yesterday, the Fed rate hike expectations delayed as a "killer." IMF lowered global growth expectations, the market is expected to increase the global central bank to maintain a loose policy. In addition, the same day the US trade balance data weakness also weighed on the dollar. Crude oil "rally, such as rainbow," the US means "dejected"

(United States refers to three days Chart, Source: Bloomberg)

Over the past week, investors have expected the Fed to raise interest rates in time postponed to next year. Before the weak non-farm payrolls data on Friday, from remarks economic health and Fed officials view, investors generally expect the Fed to raise interest rates before the end of 2015. But most traders believe the Fed has no rate hike this year, the possibility of the federal funds futures showed December rate hike of 34%.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Monday that China has the ability to control the economic slowdown, but the need for more effective communication policy, and the need to guard against the potential spillover effects.

IMF said in a report, following the devaluation of the yuan in August after about 3%, IMF that the yuan exchange rate will be consistent with "mid-term" fundamentals. IMF annual meeting this week in Peru.

August 11 RMB devaluation of nearly 2%, a move contrary to the global market expectations, triggering fears of a global currency war.

IMF says China needs to expand market forces in order to restore sustainable growth, and the implementation of effective governance.

"This is especially the state-owned and private enterprises need to strengthen budget constraints, and continue to strengthen the financial regulatory framework," IMF said.

IMF speculated that China's economic growth slowed down a percentage point each, can be converted into other Asian countries fell 0.3 percent, but its alleged impact of China's economic slowdown may be due to the decline in financial markets in recent months, exacerbated.

China's stock market tumbled in summer, as well as an unexpected devaluation of the yuan in the global financial markets caused by noise and then a large wave, and worrying whether the Chinese decision-makers the ability to lead the economy through the thorns.

"Commodity prices and Chinese foreign factors prospects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, resulting in spillover effect has been enlarged, which may make its Asian neighbors face downward pressure," the report said.

Vice president of China's central bank said last week that China sought to speed up the process of the yuan trade freely, but also plans to suppress currency speculation.

China's central bank Deputy Governor Yi Gang recently in "China's financial" magazine wrote that China will further open its capital market and develop the foreign exchange market, because of its efforts to achieve the renminbi capital account convertibility of the goal.

☆ BOJ resolution released today, whether to sell QE concern ☆

Wednesday (October 7) released the Bank of Japan policy meeting resolution. Although all walks of life are expected the Bank of Japan this meeting will bland, would not be released anything new resolution, but industry body Goldman Sachs (Goldman Sachs) said Tuesday, still can not rule out the Bank of Japan policy actions will make everyone surprise may sex. USDJPY is still holding above the 120 level.

UBS said the bank does not expect the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will announce any major decision on Wednesday (October 7) meeting, but expectations for the Bank of Japan will ease monetary policy at a meeting on October 30 on the rise, and this Wednesday's meeting or provide some hints.

UBS also said that the resolution before the Bank of Japan, the US dollar against the yen should be supported near the proposed 120.00 buy stops provided below 119.70, but the exchange rate at the 200-day moving average of 120.90 will be hindered. Crude oil "rally, such as rainbow," the US means "dejected" (USDJPY sharing plans, Source: Bloomberg)

The Bank of Japan by the end of October last year, announced the expansion of its quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE) scale, since then has been on hold for nearly a year between, and wait and see whether the Japanese economy toward a good direction to change their expectations, however, the fact is, Japan The overall economic performance is still weak, industrial production lineup, business confidence deteriorated, while salary growth in recent months there have been between signs of stagnation.

Goldman Sachs experts Racecourse Naohiko (Naohiko Baba) pointed out that the agency finds that Bank of Japan will be another meeting later this month on October 30 on, which is to expand last year relaxed the first anniversary to further expand easing efforts, but the Bank of Japan in the present weeks in advance of the possibility of action can not be completely ruled out.

Learn the Bank of Japan (BOJ) insider discuss the case on Thursday (October 1st) revealed that the central bank officials said almost no urgent need to expand monetary stimulus, tend to defer to pending economic outlook more uncertain.

Since the talks requested anonymity, privacy and informed sources said, to participate in October 6 - 7-day policy meeting members hope to have the opportunity to observe at home and abroad for further economic data and financial market developments.

Part informed sources said, due to strong corporate profits and the labor market tight, central bank officials still believe a virtuous economic cycle rooted in Japan; excluding energy prices affect inflation is picking up, giving central bankers more room for continued attention to this trend .

Quarterly report of the Bank of Japan's Tankan survey released Thursday showed that large manufacturers sentiment index fell in September compared to positive 12 months ago 3:00 for the first time in three quarters of deterioration, and the future is expected to fall further; However, the boom of large non-manufacturers unexpectedly increased.

Nevertheless, BNP Paribas (BNP Paribas) economists still believe that the Bank of Japan Tankan survey in September as a whole is stronger than generally expected, and the Bank of Japan believes that corporate profits remained strong. The bank said that even if Japan into a technical recession in the third quarter (economists believe that this may have occurred), this is not the Bank of Japan to ease monetary policy for a good reason.